What’s Your Plan, Part III: Working Your Plan
(By NCrissie B)
My last couple of posts have invited you to develop your activism plan for the November election. First I considered the importance of honest self-assessment in setting your goals. Then I looked at reverse planning, working from your objectives back to your starting point. Today we conclude by discussing burnout and how to minimize it through mutual support.
Ups and Downs….
Recently New York Times poll maven Nate Silver projected President Obama a 3:1 favorite to win reelection in November, with 51% of the popular vote and 308 electoral votes. That sounds pretty good, but earlier President Obama was a 4:1 favorite and projected to win 315 electoral votes. The polls hadn’t changed much, but Silver’s statistical model adjusts for the convention bounce to fade unless President Obama shows exceptionally strong poll numbers over the coming week.
Meanwhile, bettors at Intrade currently have President Obama a 2:1 favorite, and Talking Points Memo‘s PollTracker projects President Obama with a 3.7% lead and likely to carry at least 274 electoral votes.
Then there are the pundits. Bill Maher said last night “This is the week Mitt Romney lost the election.” At Politico, Joe Scarborough bemoaned “The problem with Mitt.” On the other hand, Google {Obama has lost the election} and you’ll get 220 million hits.
What does all that mean for your activism plan? Nothing.
The poll numbers for President Obama and other Democrats will bounce around over the next month. Some of the changes may be responses to news events. Some may reflect changes in voter enthusiasm. Most will be random statistical noise. Good poll numbers should boost your enthusiasm and weaker poll numbers should boost your determination. As for the pundits, a statistical review found you can predict political events as accurately as the ‘experts’ … by flipping a coin.
Either way, you still need to work your plan.
“I’m sick of hearing about politics!”
It’s actually easy to tune out the polls and the pundits. It’s more difficult to tune out angry or impatient responses when you’re calling and canvassing. You may already have had some. You should expect more as the ads, news, yard signs, bumper stickers, billboards, and phone calls pile up nearer the election. Increasingly, your call or door knock will be one too many … and the voter will let you know that.
When that happens, it’s easy to think maybe you should stop. Maybe the voters are burned out, a little voice may whisper in your mind. Maybe everyone who’s going to vote has already decided. Maybe all you’re doing now is annoying people who might have voted, might have voted for President Obama and Democrats, except now they’re just burned out.
The Wall Street Journal would like you to believe that. Yet most campaign professionals suggest at least six contacts per voter, and while voters seem to ignore professional phone banks and robo-calls, voters do respond well to volunteers who try to make a personal connection with each call. That is: voters respond to activists like you.
Yes, you’ll reach some voters who are burned out. And being human, you’ll probably remember those calls more vividly. But if you look over your call or canvassing records at the end of a day or week, you’ll see fewer of those than you remember.
“We’re all in this together.”
That’s not simply one of President Obama’s 2012 campaign themes. It’s a fundamental characteristic of our species. And that’s important to remember when you start to feel worn down over the coming weeks.
Talk to other activists. Phone bank or canvass together. Spend some time at your local Democratic Party campaign office, or online at the Obama campaign dashboard. Regular contact with other activists will help keep your spirits up, and help you keep working your plan when you feel like giving up.
Tags: 2012 Elections, activism, GOTV, volunteer
